B.C.’s health ministry modelling shows the province tracking closer to South Korea than Hubei province and Northern Italy. (B.C. government)

B.C.’s latest COVID-19 modelling shows restrictions flattening curve

‘This is not the end,’ Dr. Bonnie Henry says of success so far

B.C. continues to see encouraging signs in its efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus causing COVID-19 illness, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says.

Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix released their second batch of case modelling April 17, showing significant improvement from projections released in the initial study in mid-March. The model results show that B.C.’s case rate and actual intensive care unit admission rate tracking closer to South Korea’s success in controlling the spread, and significantly better than Quebec and Ontario in recent weeks.

“Our actual case rates and hospital and ICU admission rates have been far below what could have been based on other jurisdictions’ experience and data,” Henry said. “We are experiencing a slowing in our rate of new diagnosis over the last few days, and a stabilization of the number of cases we have in hospital and ICU.

“And the difference, really between what could have been and what has happened, is because of the collective actions that we have taken across the province to maintain those safe distances and to stop the chains of transmission.”

With the success in keeping down the number of hospitalized cases of the novel coronavirus, the health ministry is preparing to resume scheduling surgeries beyond the most urgent that have been done as the pandemic began. If there is no surge of new severe COVID-19 cases, that could begin by early May.

RELATED: New survey puts Canada’s response in top 15 globally

RELATED: Federal wage subsidy payments coming in early May

RELATED: B.C. COVID-19 data and graphs up to April 15

Henry emphasized that B.C.’s success is due to public health actions taken earlier than Ontario and Quebec, and not due to “herd immunity” being developed in the B.C. population as exposure has spread.

“Now is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, to quote Churchill,” Henry said. “But it is perhaps somewhere near the end of the beginning of this pandemic, and we’re now planning for our future over the coming months.”


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislatureCoronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

VALLEY SENIORS: A second chance comes with enough memories for two

The Dietrich family makes its mark on Abbeyfield House in Port Alberni

Inquest into death of Jocelyn George postponed due to COVID-19

Coroner’s inquest into 2016 death of Port Alberni woman was supposed to start July 6

Port Alberni’s Joe Hill celebrates 90th birthday with waves through a window

Retired accountant receives best wishes via Zoom, meets newborn great-grandchild

Alberni Golf Club reopens with new COVID-19 rules

J and L Mixed Scramble kicks off 2020 season

Help is available for Port Alberni businesses restarting after COVID-19 closures

Popular food truck finds a new location on Johnston Road

VIDEO: Injured bald eagle rescued in B.C. First Nations community

Bird suspected injured in fight, whisked off to Coquitlam rehab

An ongoing updated list of Alberni Valley events affected by COVID-19

Has your event been cancelled or postponed? Check here

Toronto Raptors’ Ujiri says conversations about racism can no longer be avoided

Thousands have protested Floyd’s death and repeated police killings of black men across the United States

B.C.’s Central Kootenay region declares state of emergency, issues evacuation orders

The evacuation alert covers all areas except the Cities of Castelgar and Nelson

‘I’m afraid’: Witnesses of wolf attack on senior near Prince Rupert worried about safety

Frank Russ shows where the unprovoked wolf attacked his father

Protesters prepare to rally against racism in front of Vancouver Art Gallery

Rally is in response to the deaths of black Americans and a Toronto woman

Man dies in ATV accident south of Nanaimo

Incident happened on backroad Friday night in Nanaimo Lakes area

Protesters rally against anti-black, Indigenous racism in Toronto

Police estimated the crowd to be between 3,500 and 4,000 and said there was no violence

Feds earmark $1.5M to support recovery of B.C., Indigenous tourism

B.C. money will be split between Vancouver Island and Indigenous tourism

Most Read